Community, Diversity, Sustainability and other Overused Words

80% of Last Week's Covid Deaths in Los Angeles County were of Vaccinated Individuals

Taking into account that 72.5% of the county vaccinated, this number still shows proportionately more vaccinated than unvaccinated died last week

March 24, 2022 - Last week, 100 additional people died of the Covid virus, as such deaths are calculated by the LA County Department of Public Health. 80 of those deaths were of vaccinated individuals. Currently, 72.5% of the county is fully vaccinated. If the vaccine had no effect, then one would expect roughly 72.5% of deaths to occur in vaccinated people. Instead 7.5% more deaths than expected occurred among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated last week.

The vaccines have long ago proven largely ineffective at preventing infection. Starting June 1, the LADPH started providing data regarding vaccine infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. At this time, a substantial portion of the population became vaccinated. Since June 1, 2021, there have been 750,011 cases of Covid-19 among the vaccinated. This is 47.4% of all Covid cases since that date. With an average vaccinated population over this time period of 54.9%, the vaccines have only provided 54.9 minus 47.4 or a 7.5% benefit in reducing the chance of infection.

In general, the vaccines have provided substantial benefit in helping stave off death compared to no-vaccine. Since June 1, 2021, there are been a total of 7,162 Covid deaths. Only 1,981 of them were of vaccinated individuals, or 27.7%. If the vaccine had no effect, one would have expected the percent of deaths in vaccinated individuals to equal their average percent of the population, or 54.9%. Instead, the vaccines lowered this to 27.7%. So the benefit from the vaccine was 54.9 minus 27.7 or 27.2%.

During the four weeks of this past winter's surge (from January 4 to February 1, 2022), the overall death rate for the unvaccinated was roughly .2%. The overall death rate for the vaccinated was about .1%. One could say that death was twice as likely for the unvaccinated as the vaccinated, but a pragmatic look at the numbers shows they are both very low. The death rate for the seasonal flu is considered to be .1%.

The explanation for the higher death rate for the vaccinated this past week may relate to the fact that an approximate 80% of the county's "Covid" deaths involve underlying conditions. As each successive strain proves to be less deadly (see, it may be that the county's methodology for calculating a "Covid" death becomes less and less accurate. Currently, the county claims a death is from Covid if that death results from any non-traumatic cause within 30 days of a positive Covid test. This methodology together with the proportionately larger role played by underlying conditions as Covid becomes less dangerous could lead to increasingly inaccurate data coming from the LADPH.


Reader Comments(2)

MMc writes:

The author needs some elementary statistics education. You can’t subtract percentages and come up with a meaningful number. 54.9% minus 27.7% is not a meaningful math problem. There is more, but what’s the point? Talk to someone who understands basic statistics.

SMMK writes:

What were the ages of the 100 that died yesterday unvaxxed? This data is really important to know and should have also been shared for an accurate picture this article was trying to depict. Is it elderly? Is it a specific age range? Can you please share this information? Thank you