The Chinese Navy Already Has More Ships Than the US. How Will Trump Address This, When China's Shipbuilding Capacity is 100 Times Greater Than the US?

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has already surpassed the U.S. Navy in terms of sheer fleet size, with around 370 warships compared to the U.S. Navy's approximately 290 as of recent reports. Between 2015 and 2020, the PLAN overtook the U.S. Navy in the number of battle force ships, and projections suggest it could grow to 395–425 ships by 2030, while the U.S. Navy struggles to maintain its current fleet size, targeting 350 ships by 2045. China's shipbuilding capacity is significantly larger, reportedly over 100 times greater than the U.S., allowing rapid expansion.

However, size alone doesn't equate to power. The U.S. Navy maintains a technological and operational edge, with 11 aircraft carriers compared to China's 3, and superior global reach, experience, and alliances like AUKUS. The PLAN's fleet includes many smaller vessels, like frigates and corvettes, which are less capable in blue-water operations than U.S. destroyers and cruisers. China's navy also faces challenges in quality control, crew training, and projecting power far from its shores, limiting its global challenge to the U.S.

In raw numbers, the PLAN is already larger and will likely widen that gap by 2030. In terms of overall power-factoring in technology, training, and global operational capability-the U.S. Navy remains ahead but faces increasing pressure as China closes the gap, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S.'s declining shipbuilding capacity and recruitment issues could exacerbate this trend if not addressed.

The Trump administration has recognized the challenge posed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) surpassing the U.S. Navy in fleet size and is taking steps to address this trend. Key actions include:

Executive Order on Maritime Dominance: In March 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order to Restore U.S. Maritime Dominance, directing the Department of Defense to prioritize shipbuilding and naval modernization to counter China's growing fleet.

Shipbuilding Overhaul: The administration is exploring innovative approaches to bolster the U.S. shipbuilding industry, including outsourcing ship construction to allies to address the U.S.'s limited shipyard capacity, which lags far behind China's. This aims to close the gap in fleet size, with China projected to have 425 ships by 2030 compared to the U.S.'s target of 350 by 2045.

Focus on Naval Modernization: The administration has made China's naval buildup a top defense priority, emphasizing investments in advanced technologies and AI-driven industrial capabilities to enhance the U.S. Navy’s lethality and deterrence. This includes developing new ship-killing capabilities to counter China's numerical advantage in the Pacific.

Below is a comparison of the U.S. Navy and the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) based on the most recent available data, focusing on fleet size, composition, capabilities, and strategic considerations as of June 2025.

Fleet Size

U.S. Navy: Approximately 290 battle force ships (as of late 2024). This includes aircraft carriers, submarines, destroyers, cruisers, amphibious ships, and smaller vessels. The U.S. aims to reach 350 ships by 2045, but faces challenges due to limited shipbuilding capacity and retirements outpacing new construction.

PLAN: Around 370 warships (as of late 2024), with projections suggesting growth to 395–425 ships by 2030. China’s fleet has surpassed the U.S. in total numbers since around 2020, driven by its massive shipbuilding industry, reportedly 100 times larger than the U.S.'s.

Fleet Composition

U.S. Navy:

Aircraft Carriers: 11 nuclear-powered carriers, each capable of carrying 70–80 aircraft, providing unmatched power projection. Examples include the USS Gerald R. Ford (most advanced carrier).

Submarines: ~70, including 50 attack submarines (Virginia- and Los Angeles-class), 14 ballistic missile submarines (Ohio-class), and 4 guided-missile submarines. These are technologically superior with global operational reach.

Surface Combatants: ~90, including 22 Ticonderoga-class cruisers and 70 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, equipped with advanced Aegis systems for air defense and missile interception.

Amphibious Ships: ~30, supporting global expeditionary operations, including Marine Corps deployments.

Smaller Vessels: Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) and patrol craft, though fewer in number compared to China.

Logistics/Support: Extensive, enabling global sustainment, with over 30 replenishment ships.

PLAN:

Aircraft Carriers: 3 carriers (Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian). Liaoning and Shandong are conventionally powered with smaller air wings (30–40 aircraft); Fujian (launched 2022) is more advanced but not yet fully operational. China plans to expand to 5–6 carriers by 2035.

Submarines: ~60, including 6 ballistic missile submarines (Type 094), 6 nuclear-powered attack submarines (Type 093), and ~50 diesel-electric submarines (Type 039). Chinese submarines are less advanced in stealth and endurance compared to U.S. counterparts.

Surface Combatants: ~130, including 50 destroyers (Type 055 and Type 052D, comparable to U.S. destroyers in some respects) and 80 frigates/corvettes (Type 054A and Type 056). These smaller vessels boost numbers but are less capable in blue-water operations.

Amphibious Ships: ~40, including Type 075 amphibious assault ships, enhancing regional power projection, particularly for Taiwan scenarios.

Smaller Vessels: Over 100 missile boats and patrol craft, ideal for coastal defense and anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies in the South China Sea.

Logistics/Support: ~30 replenishment ships, but limited compared to the U.S., constraining long-range operations.

Technological and Operational Capabilities

U.S. Navy:

Technological Edge: Superior in stealth, sensors, and weapons systems (e.g., Aegis, SM-6 missiles, F-35B/C integration). Nuclear-powered carriers and submarines provide unmatched endurance and global reach.

Training and Experience: Decades of global operations, including combat experience in multiple theaters, give U.S. crews a qualitative advantage.

Global Reach: Operates across all oceans with a network of bases (e.g., Japan, Guam, Diego Garcia) and alliances (NATO, AUKUS, Quad), enabling sustained presence.

Challenges: Aging fleet (some ships nearing 40 years), recruitment shortfalls, and a struggling shipbuilding industry (only two major shipyards vs. China’s dozens).

PLAN:

Technological Progress: Rapidly closing the gap with modern ships like the Type 055 destroyer (comparable to U.S. cruisers in size and armament). However, submarines and carriers lag in stealth and reliability.

Training and Experience: Limited combat experience and less developed blue-water operational expertise. Crew training is improving but remains a weak point.

Regional Focus: Optimized for A2/AD in the Indo-Pacific, particularly around Taiwan and the South China Sea. Limited global presence, with operations confined to regional waters and occasional deployments (e.g., Gulf of Aden).

Advantages: Massive shipbuilding capacity, rapid modernization, and integration of advanced missiles (e.g., YJ-18 anti-ship missiles). Domestic production reduces reliance on foreign suppliers.

Strategic Considerations

U.S. Navy:

Global Mission: Maintains a forward-deployed posture to secure global sea lanes, deter adversaries, and support allies. Key focus areas include countering China in the Indo-Pacific and Russia in the Arctic/Atlantic.

Alliances: Leverages partnerships like AUKUS (U.S., UK, Australia) and the Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) to counterbalance China’s regional influence.

Trump Administration Plans: The March 2025 Executive Order on Maritime Dominance emphasizes shipbuilding revitalization, outsourcing to allies, and AI-driven modernization to counter China’s numerical advantage. Plans include developing new ship-killing capabilities and maintaining high-visibility operations (e.g., Taiwan Strait transits).

PLAN:

Regional Dominance: Focused on securing the "First Island Chain" (Japan, Taiwan, Philippines) and denying U.S. access in a potential conflict (e.g., Taiwan invasion). A2/AD strategies rely on missile systems and coastal defenses.

Global Ambitions: Expanding presence through port visits and bases (e.g., Djibouti), but still primarily a regional power. Aims to project power globally by 2049 (PRC’s centennial goal).

Challenges: Limited experience in sustained global operations and reliance on untested systems in high-intensity conflict scenarios.

Key Metrics Comparison

Category

U.S. Navy

PLAN

Total Ships

~290

~370

Aircraft Carriers

11 (nuclear-powered)

3 (conventionally powered)

Submarines

~70 (mostly nuclear)

~60 (mostly diesel-electric)

Destroyers/Cruisers

~90 (advanced, Aegis-equipped)

~50 (modern but less versatile)

Frigates/Corvettes

~20 (LCS, limited roles)

~80 (smaller, regionally focused)

Amphibious Ships

~30 (global expeditionary)

~40 (regional focus)

Shipbuilding Capacity

Limited (2 major shipyards)

Massive (dozens of shipyards)

Global Reach

Extensive (bases, alliances)

Limited (regional focus)

Operational Experience

High (decades of global ops)

Low (no recent combat experience)

Assessment

Size: The PLAN already surpasses the U.S. Navy in total ships and is likely to widen this gap by 2030 due to its superior shipbuilding capacity.

Power: The U.S. Navy retains a qualitative edge in technology, training, and global operational capability, particularly with its carrier strike groups and nuclear submarines. However, China’s focus on regional dominance and A2/AD strategies makes it a formidable adversary in the Indo-Pacific.

Future Trends: Without significant U.S. investment in shipbuilding and modernization, China’s numerical advantage could translate into regional strategic dominance, especially in a Taiwan contingency. The Trump administration’s initiatives aim to address this, but execution remains uncertain given industrial and budgetary constraints.

Strategic Messaging and Posture: The U.S. Navy is being positioned to project unambiguous strength, with plans to signal the ability to decisively defeat Chinese maritime forces if necessary. This involves maintaining high-visibility operations, such as Taiwan Strait transits, which the PLAN closely monitors.

Despite these efforts, challenges remain. The U.S. shipbuilding industry is described as "bottlenecked," and recruitment issues hinder fleet expansion. Critics argue that without significant investment and policy reform, the U.S. risks falling further behind China’s industrial output. The administration’s plans are ambitious but face skepticism about their feasibility given the scale of China’s shipbuilding advantage.