Mamdani Holds Strong Lead in New York City Mayoral Race as November 4th Election Nears

New York, NY – October 5, 2025 – With less than a month until the November 4, 2025, New York City mayoral election, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani leads a three-way race, according to the latest polls.

The contest, upended by incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' withdrawal on September 28, now pits Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman, against former Governor Andrew Cuomo (independent, "Fight and Deliver" line) and Republican Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels.

Recent surveys show Mamdani consistently ahead with 42–47% of likely voters. Polls from Fox News (Sept. 18–22), Suffolk University/CityView (Sept. 16–18), and Quinnipiac University (Sept. 4–8) place Cuomo at 23–29% and Sliwa at 9–18%. Adams, who ran as an independent after leaving the Democratic Party, polled in single digits before exiting due to fundraising challenges. Minor candidates like Jim Walden and Joseph Hernandez register under 2%, with undecided voters around 5–13%.Mamdani's lead builds on his June 24 Democratic primary upset, where he defeated Cuomo 56.4% to 43.6% in the final round of ranked-choice voting.

His campaign, backed by young voters, progressives, and labor unions, focuses on affordability (51% of voters call NYC "very unaffordable" per Suffolk), public transit, and homelessness solutions.

Polls show strong enthusiasm, with 74% of Democratic primary voters favoring a mayor who takes a firm stance against President Donald Trump's policies.Cuomo, banking on moderate Democrats and independents, gains slightly post-Adams, potentially picking up 5–7% of his support. In a head-to-head matchup, Quinnipiac has Mamdani leading 48–44%. Sliwa, appealing to conservative voters, holds steady but splits the anti-Mamdani vote. Despite Trump dismissing his campaign as "unserious," Sliwa remains committed, emphasizing public safety (45% cite crime as a key issue).

No major polls have emerged since Adams' exit, but an August American Pulse survey suggested a closer race without him (Mamdani 38%, Cuomo 32%, Sliwa 23%). Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket give Mamdani an 84–85% chance of winning.

However, primary polls underestimated his support by 10–15 points, suggesting general election surveys may miss shifts among hard-to-reach voters.With debates and endorsements on the horizon, the race remains dynamic. Mamdani's focus on working-class issues and progressive policies keeps him ahead, but Cuomo and Sliwa aim to sway undecided voters as the election approaches.