Powerful Series of Pacific Storms to Impact Southern California Beginning Monday 2/18/26

The article has been further updated as of February 13-14, 2026, incorporating the latest from independent meteorologist Jason Farhang (via his recent posts and videos) and official sources like the National Weather Service (NWS) Los Angeles/Oxnard, LA County alerts, and local media reports (e.g., KTLA, FOXLA, NBC Los Angeles, LA Times).

Farhang's February 13 update shows no major change, with rainfall still trending steady at 2.2-6.2 inches (slightly adjusted downward from his initial aggressive 3.2-6.0+ inches forecast), while maintaining emphasis on the intense polar jet and peak impacts Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Official consensus points to a multi-day series starting late Sunday/early Monday, with the heaviest rain Monday, and totals generally 1-3 inches coastal/valleys (higher in mountains), plus risks of thunderstorms, winds, surf hazards, and burn scar debris flows.

Powerful Series of Pacific Storms to Impact Southern California

Subheading: Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, Thunderstorms, and Mountain Snow Set for Late Sunday Onward; Peak Activity Monday-Tuesday

Santa Monica, CA – February 14, 2026 – A strengthening series of Pacific storm systems—driven by Siberian-influenced cold air and subtropical moisture—is forecast to bring significant rainfall, strong winds, potential thunderstorms, hazardous surf, and mountain snow to Southern California beginning late Sunday, February 15, and persisting through at least mid-week.

Independent meteorologist Jason Farhang, in updates shared February 12-13 (including Facebook videos and X posts), continues to highlight an aggressive pattern with an intense polar jet stream (up to 180 knots) directing energy at the region. His latest forecast holds rainfall totals steady between 2.2 and 6.2 inches for many areas (with higher possibilities in favored spots), and he stresses the core heavy period from Monday around 5 PM through Tuesday around 8 PM. Farhang has noted the system's potential for higher thresholds in some model runs, accompanied by visuals of GFS outputs showing deep low-pressure intensification and onshore flow.

The National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard and county officials describe a multi-system sequence rather than one monolithic event:

Late Sunday, February 15 (start time): The first system arrives, with light to moderate rain spreading southward. Showers could begin in northwest areas (e.g., San Luis Obispo) by afternoon/evening, reaching Los Angeles County and Santa Monica by late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Initial accumulations will be lighter (drizzle/chance of showers building).

Monday, February 16 (Presidents' Day): The heaviest and most widespread rain is expected, moving west-to-east through the day. Coastal/valley areas could see 1-3 inches total from this pulse (with brief heavier downpours possible), mountains 2-5+ inches. Thunderstorms (some severe near the coast), gusty winds (25-40 mph valleys/coasts, higher in mountains/deserts), dangerous surf, and a low tornado risk are possible. This aligns with Farhang's noted peak window starting Monday afternoon.

Tuesday, February 17: Rain continues but less intense overall, with additional showers. Snow levels drop to 4,000-5,000 feet (possible dusting in lower passes like Grapevine or Cajon), increasing mountain snow risks.

Into Wednesday/Thursday: Lingering showers and another potential system could extend wet conditions, though details are refining.

NWS and media (e.g., KTLA, NBC, FOXLA) note totals of 1-3 inches for most coastal/valley spots from the initial systems (higher in orographic areas), with the pattern marking a major shift from the mild, dry Valentine's weekend. Urban flooding, street ponding, power outage risks from wind/downed trees, beach hazards (large swells prompting closures), and debris flows/mudslides in burn scar zones remain key concerns.

Santa Monica and coastal LA face amplified threats from rain, wind-driven surf, and potential ponding on streets/commutes. Residents should:

Prepare now: Secure loose items, stock emergency supplies, and monitor for outages/flooding.

Sign up for alerts: Use Alert LA County, NWS notifications, or local jurisdiction systems.

Stay safe: Avoid flooded roads, stay out of ocean water, and watch burn scar areas.

The Santa Monica Observer will keep monitoring as forecasts evolve (models continue to converge on significant but not extreme totals). Check the National Weather Service (weather.gov/lox), local news, and official channels for real-time updates and any watches/warnings. A wet, cooler, and blustery stretch is ahead—prepare accordingly.