Santa Monica Confronts Sharp Rise in State-Mandated Housing Targets

The city is grappling with a dramatically increased Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) that has intensified debates over density, height limits, and the pace of new development. In the previous 5th Cycle (covering roughly 2013–2021), Santa Monica's RHNA was 1,674 housing units. For the current 6th Cycle (2021–2029), the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) allocated Santa Monica 8,895 units - more than a fivefold increase.

Of the current allocation, approximately 6,168 units (around 69–70%) must be affordable to lower-income households, typically secured through deed-restricted below-market-rate (BMR) units.

How can Santa Monica, an 8 mile square city with 90,000 residents, possibly add 8,895 units by 2029?

To accommodate this target and demonstrate sufficient development capacity in its Housing Element, the city has pursued zoning changes that allow significantly taller and denser projects on key corridors.

Neighborhood commercial zones along Main Street, Montana Avenue, Pico Boulevard, and Ocean Park Boulevard - areas previously capped at lower heights such as 55 feet - are now seeing plans and approvals for buildings reaching eight stories or more, with some analyses showing feasible heights up to 84–85 feet or higher under certain incentive programs.

Critics argue the surge in mandated targets, combined with state incentives that allow developers to exceed standard zoning in exchange for affordable units, has created an artificial pressure for rapid up-zoning and large-scale projects.

City officials maintain the changes are necessary to comply with state law and address the regional housing shortage. With the current cycle ending in 2029 and the next RHNA cycle on the horizon, community members are being encouraged to engage in the planning process before further allocations and zoning decisions are finalized.