Entrenched Stalemate: Russia's Costly Gains Fail to Break Ukraine as 2025 Draws to Close

KYIV/MOSCOW, December 25, 2025 - As the Russo-Ukrainian War enters its fourth year, the conflict has solidified into a grinding stalemate of attrition, with Russian forces making slow, incremental advances in eastern Ukraine at an enormous human and material cost, while Ukrainian defenses-bolstered by innovative drone warfare-hold firm without major breakthroughs on either side.Independent analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimate that Russia seized approximately 4,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025-roughly twice the size of Moscow-but Russian officials have claimed over 6,000 sq km, figures widely viewed as inflated. This represents less than 1% of Ukraine's total land area, underscoring the war's shift to positional, drone-dominated trench warfare reminiscent of World War I.

Key battles defined the year: Russian forces captured towns like Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Chasiv Yar, and Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast after months of intense fighting, often relying on infantry infiltrations amid heavy artillery and drone barrages. In the north, advances near Vovchansk and Kupyansk were contested, with Ukrainian counterattacks reclaiming some positions. Southern fronts saw limited Russian gains around Huliaipole.Yet these victories came at staggering cost. Western estimates place Russian casualties at over 1 million total since 2022, with up to 250,000 killed and hundreds of thousands wounded in 2025 alone-disproportionately high for the modest territorial gains.csis.org

Bombed out Ukrainian apartment building

Ukraine, meanwhile, faces acute manpower shortages. With active forces around 900,000 but many units understrength, desertions surged to over 110,000 cases in 2025, exacerbated by war fatigue and recruitment challenges. Kyiv's reliance on drones-producing millions annually and leading in FPV strikes-has offset some disadvantages, inflicting heavy losses on Russian armor and personnel.atlanticcouncil.org

As winter sets in, diplomatic efforts intensify but remain stalled. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled a U.S.-backed 20-point peace plan offering concessions like demilitarized zones in remaining Donbas areas, robust security guarantees, and economic recovery packages. Russia, however, rejects compromises short of its maximalist demands, including full control of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Ukrainian neutrality.Analysts describe the battlefield as frozen in costly equilibrium: Russia advances village by village through sheer mass, but Ukraine's adaptive tactics prevent collapse. "Russia is trading lives for villages with no strategic value," one Western observer noted, while Kyiv's infantry crisis risks long-term erosion without renewed mobilization and aid.reuters.com

With Russia occupying about 20% of Ukraine and no decisive victories in sight, the war's outcome increasingly hinges on endurance-military, economic, and political-as both sides brace for another year of brutal attrition.