Analysis: Hamas Views the Gaza War with Israel as a Success Despite 45,000 Deaths and Widespread Destruction of Gaza

December 25, 2025: Two years after the devastating October 7, 2023, attack that killed around 1,200 Israelis and took 251 hostages, sparking a war that has claimed over 66,000 Palestinian lives and reduced much of Gaza to rubble, Hamas leaders continue to frame the conflict as a strategic triumph.bbc.com

Key Hamas leaders, including the late Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh, orchestrated the October 7 operation known as "Al-Aqsa Flood." The architects of the assault-primarily Yahya Sinwar (killed by Israel in October 2024), Mohammed Deif, and exiled political figures-aimed to shatter Israel's sense of security, revive global attention to the Palestinian cause, derail Arab-Israeli normalization, and secure prisoner exchanges. They anticipated a fierce Israeli response, planning to leverage it to portray Israel as the aggressor and rally support.

Scenes from the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Despite the immense human cost in Gaza, Hamas officials overwhelmingly declare victory. On the second anniversary in October 2025, the group called October 7 a "glorious day of success." Senior figures like Khalil al-Hayya and Osama Hamdan have hailed it as a historic achievement that exposed Israeli vulnerabilities, freed thousands of Palestinian prisoners through hostage deals, thwarted Saudi-Israeli ties, and sparked worldwide pro-Palestinian protests and boycotts.aljazeera.com

Global pro-Palestinian demonstrations surged after October 7, which Hamas cites as evidence of renewed international solidarity.Hamas points to Israel's failure to fully eradicate the group-despite decimating its leadership and infrastructure-as proof of resilience. Polls cited by the movement show strong Palestinian backing, and officials describe the operation as a "miraculous" step toward liberation, worth repeating if necessary.Yet cracks have emerged. In early 2025 interviews, senior politburo member Mousa Abu Marzouk admitted he would not have supported October 7 knowing Gaza's devastation, calling victory claims "impossible." Other leaders have struggled publicly to justify the toll, with some acknowledging no "decisive victory" but insisting progress toward one.pbs.org

Widespread destruction in Gaza following two years of war.A fragile ceasefire, brokered under a U.S.-backed plan and effective since October 2025, has held broadly amid violations. It includes hostage releases and partial Israeli withdrawals but stalls on Hamas disarmament and full troop pullout. As Christmas dawns in Gaza under the hum of drones and sporadic strikes, Hamas's narrative of success endures among its core, even as many Gazans question the price paid.Analysts note that while Hamas survived and refocused global scrutiny on Palestine, the war's legacy-massive casualties, isolation for Israel, and stalled peace-reinforces the group's long-term resistance strategy, framing sacrifice as inevitable for eventual gains.