Immigration to the United Kingdom Set to Dominate May 2026 UK Elections as Public Concern Hits Record Highs

London, 11 February 2026 – With just three months until voters head to the polls in crucial local, Scottish, and Welsh elections on 7 May, immigration policy has emerged as the single most pressing issue for much of the British public, overshadowing even the economy in many surveys and posing a major headache for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government.

Recent polling paints a stark picture of widespread unease. A Gallup survey released this week shows the United Kingdom leading the world in concern about migration, with over one in five adults (21%) naming it the top national problem – a figure that rises dramatically to nearly half (48%) among supporters of Reform UK, the anti-immigration party currently topping or near the top of national voting intention polls. YouGov data from early January found that 23% of Britons cited "tackling immigration" as the government's number-one priority for 2026, far ahead of other concerns, with Reform voters (56%) and Conservatives (37%) driving the trend.

Despite sharp falls in actual arrivals, public perception remains stubbornly out of step with reality. Net migration dropped to an estimated 204,000 in the year ending June 2025 – a two-thirds reduction from the previous year's peak and a return to pre-pandemic levels – according to provisional Office for National Statistics figures. Yet a Guardian-commissioned poll in January revealed that two-thirds (67%) of voters incorrectly believe immigration is still rising, including four in five Reform supporters who think it has increased significantly.

Confidence in Labour's handling of the issue has collapsed. Only 18% of voters express any confidence in the government on immigration, while 74% have little or none – a sharp decline even among those who backed Labour in 2024. The government's response has been to adopt tougher measures, including proposals to double the wait for indefinite leave to remain from five to ten years, stricter English language rules, longer waits for citizenship among refugees, curbs on family reunification, and efforts to accelerate deportations and end reliance on asylum hotels.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has spearheaded the push, framing it as a necessary response to small-boat crossings and public demand for control. While these steps have contributed to the decline in net figures, critics argue Labour is co-opting Reform UK's rhetoric without fully satisfying voters, risking alienation of its own progressive base while failing to dent Nigel Farage's momentum.

Analysts warn that the May elections – covering over 4,000 council seats in England, mayoral races in several cities, the full Scottish Parliament, and the Senedd in Wales – could become a referendum on immigration. Reform UK is widely expected to make gains in fragmented local contests, capitalising on dissatisfaction in England where the party has already secured mayoral victories and hundreds of seats in recent cycles. In Scotland and Wales, immigration intersects with devolved debates, though independence and economic issues remain dominant.

Gallup notes that high salience of immigration, combined with low trust in the government and strong Reform support among motivated voters, could create significant headwinds for Labour incumbents. If turnout among Reform sympathisers remains high, the results may signal a further fragmentation of British politics, with traditional parties losing ground to insurgents on both the right and left.

As the campaign intensifies, the elections on 7 May will test whether Labour's hardening stance has stemmed the populist tide – or merely highlighted deeper public distrust on one of the defining issues of the era.