78 Degree Water in Santa Monica Bay? Record Ocean Warmth Hits Santa Monica Pier as Strong El Niño Builds

Santa Monica, CA — Water temperatures at Santa Monica Pier reached a balmy 76.8°F on July 25, marking the highest July reading ever recorded at the popular coastal landmark, according to weather tracker Colin McCarthy of US Stormwatch.

The unusually warm nearshore waters have contributed to elevated humidity levels across Southern California this summer, making conditions feel more tropical than the typically dry coastal climate many residents expect. Sea surface temperature anomaly maps from the period show widespread warmth along the Southern California coast, with anomalies reaching several degrees above the long-term average in places.

Local surfers and beachgoers have noticed the difference. One longtime surfer near the pier described the water as feeling “closer to Hawaii or Cabo” than the cooler conditions of past decades, while others expressed concern about potential stress on the local kelp ecosystem.

Is this an El Niño year?

Yes. Official monitoring confirms that El Niño conditions are present and strengthening across the equatorial Pacific. As of mid-to-late July 2026, the Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Advisory. Sea surface temperatures in key Niño regions remain well above average, with recent weekly values supporting a strengthening event. Forecasts indicate a high probability that this El Niño will become very strong by the fall and persist through the winter of 2026–27 into early spring 2027.

The warm coastal waters off Southern California are consistent with the broader Pacific warming pattern associated with El Niño, though local factors such as reduced upwelling can also play a role in nearshore temperatures.

Will this winter be wetter than usual?

Strong El Niño events historically tilt the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions across Southern California and the Southwest by shifting the storm track southward and increasing the frequency of Pacific storms and atmospheric rivers. Seasonal outlooks currently favor above-normal precipitation chances for the region during the cool season.

That said, no El Niño is a guarantee. Past strong events have produced both very wet winters (such as 1997–98) and disappointing rainfall totals in some cases. Local rainfall outcomes will still depend on the precise positioning of the jet stream, individual storm tracks, and other atmospheric patterns. Residents should monitor official National Weather Service updates as the fall and winter seasons approach.

For now, the combination of record July water temperatures and a developing strong El Niño offers a clear signal of an active Pacific climate pattern with potential implications for Santa Monica’s beaches, humidity, and water supply in the months ahead.