Community, Diversity, Sustainability and other Overused Words

Why George Gascon is in Trouble and Nathan Hochman is Highly Likely to Be the Next Los Angeles County District Attorney

Gascon's perceived soft-on-crime policies and the resultant growth in crime and homelessness have soured two thirds of the county

March 15, 2024 - With the majority of votes in Los Angeles County already processed, the race for Los Angeles County District Attorney appears to have narrowed to George Gascon, the incumbent, and Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor, U.S. Assistant Attorney General, and private defense attorney.

Nathan Hochman may currently hold 2/3 of the votes for DA

In looking at the distribution of votes among the twelve candidates for the office, it is apparent that, should the proportion of voters remain the same in the general election in November, George Gascon is in serious trouble of losing his seat.

Gascon received roughly one quarter of the votes in the primary election, an embarrassingly small percentage for an incumbent. In looking at the votes received by his opponents, it is possible to make a fairly good prediction as to which candidate - Gascon or Hochman - will receive the vote originally cast for a different candidate.

Debra Archuleta, Maria Ramirez, David S. Milton, and Craig J. Mitchell all ran campaigns directly opposing George Gascon by name and decrying his policies. Voters who inked the ballot for these candidates can reliably be expected to vote Hochman over Gascon.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Hatami and Eric Siddal both ran as part of the disgusted majority of Gascon's staff, the assistant district attorneys, and both have been outspoken in their campaigns - and before campaigning - in their opposition to Gascon and his pro-"justice reform" policies. These policies have resulted in many crimes receiving no prosecution at all or in defendants being released on their own recognizance or with nothing more than a ticket.

Lloyd "Bobcat" Masson states on his website that "LA needs a strong DA to tell criminals that play time is over. Priority one for me is immediately dropping the hammer on all robbery, burglary and theft-related offenses, including follow-home robberies, car thefts, retail theft and catalytic converter thefts." It is unlikely any voter attracted to this theme is going to vote for the incumbent who did away with all criminal sentencing enhancements and has forbidden his staff from charging many felonies - or even misdemeanors.

Only Jeff Chemerinsky and Dan Kapelovitz ran campaigns that might be construed in alignment with Gascon, or even to the left of him. Chemerinsky's campaign begins with the statement that he "strongly believes in criminal justice reform because mass incarceration does not work." Similarly, Kapelovitz pledges to end mass incarceration caused by racism and to do this by addressing "root causes of crime such as poverty, drug addiction, and mental illness." Those who voted for these candidates will likely vote for Gascon.

Given the breakdown of the votes given below,( as of March 14 and with most ballot processed) and assuming their voters will vote in November as we have surmised, Gacon will receive a mere 34% of the vote and Hochman will get 66% of the vote.

This isn't even close.

Although one might suppose that disappointed voters may not return to the polls to vote for their second choice, November is going to be a presidential election. Turnout will be high. And since the voter is already there, they are likely to mark their ballot against the district attorney they very obviously distrust and dislike.

This photo, from his own website, shows Gascon looking lost as he walks down the street

Vote distribution in the Los Angeles County District Attorney Race

George Gascon 25.18%

Nathan Hochman 15.95%

Jonathan Hatami 13.23% (these voters will likely vote Hochman)

Debra Archuleta 8.51% (these voters will likely vote Hochman)

Jeff Chemerinsky 7.89% (these voters may vote Gascon)

Maria Ramirez 7.14% (these voters will likely vote Hochman)

John McKinney 5.97% (these voters will likely vote Hochman)

Eric Siddall 5.64% (these voters will likely vote Hochman)

David S. Milton 4.28% (these voters will likely vote Hochman)

Craig J. Mitchell 3.01% (these voters will likely vote Hochman)

Lloyd "Bobcat" Masson 1.99% (these voters will likely vote Hochman)

Dan Kapelovitz 1.19% (these voters may vote Gascon)


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