Community, Diversity, Sustainability and other Overused Words

Covid Vaccines Not as Effective As Advertised in Preventing Infection According to LA County Department of Public Health Data

Chance of death once infected is about 3.5 times less if vaccinated than unvaccinated but both numbers are relatively small (or large, if compared to seasonal flu)

October 19, 2021 - Statistics from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health show an increasing percentage of breakthrough cases among the fully vaccinated and an increasing percentage of deaths among those breakthrough cases. The general public has not had an opportunity to become fully vaccinated until April, 2021, so data regarding the efficacy of the vaccines in LA County in preventing infection, hospitalization, and death have only been available for the past 7 months. The County rarely discloses such data. They have never disclosed how many cases of Covid have occurred in people who have recovered from the disease, so it is impossible to calculate the efficacy of natural immunity from county numbers.

As of October 19, 2021, the statistics from the LA County Department of Public Health show:

Total population of LA County: 10,014,009

Total number fully vaccinated: 6,235, 302

Total Covid infections: 1,400,688

Fully vaccinated Covid infections: 60,689

Total Covid deaths: 25,033

Fully vaccinated Covid deaths: 311

The previous numbers released regarding breakthrough infections and associated hospitalizations and deaths are from roughly 2 weeks ago, on September 30. Since then, 54 additional people who are vaccinated have died from Covid. In the same time period, 217 people died who were not vaccinated, or about 4 times as many. The rate of death of fully vaccinated infected individuals climbed from 0.465% on September 30 to 0.512% on October 18. Both numbers remain small so far, but the trend is not in the right direction. The overall rate of death for both vaccinated and unvaccinated, once infected, is 1.79%. The death rate for the seasonal flu is generally regarded as 0.1%.

It should be noted that statistics regarding the fully vaccinated only apply to the last 7 months while the overall statistics are from the past 19 months. Over time, more breakthrough infections are going to occur and more associated deaths.

For this reason, it is beneficial to examine more recent data. For example, in just the past two weeks, 5,430 breakthrough cases occurred. In the same time period, 15,738 unvaccinated individuals tested positive for Covid. The vaccine appears to provide far less efficacy than advertised in preventing infection if as many as one third of the cases are among the vaccinated, who comprise only a little more than half the county's population.

Of course, all of this supposes the county knows how many cases of infection have occurred. The results of home Covid tests are not known nor recorded by the county, and these kits are widely available and utilized.

As of today, the rate of death, once infected, is 3.5 times higher for those unvaccinated than for those vaccinated. However, judging from the past two weeks, that difference may begin to narrow.


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